Massive retaliation3/2/2023 Meantime, Iran incorporated Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities to reinforce physical depth by hampering an enemy’s maneuverability and accessibility to its regional assets. Various operational plans, including “ mosaic defense“, were developed to do so. The doctrine was designed to increase any potential adversaries’ costs and to lower aggressors’ morale, in order to deter them from attacking. The first generation of Iranian military doctrine, “Effective Deterrence”, was developed during 2003-2010 using Iran’s internal vast geography to provide physical depth and erode an enemy invader. This concept became the foundation for a doctrinal review. Salami, who is highly respected within IRGC ranks and is seen as a strategic thinker, said at his inauguration ceremony on April 24 that the IRGC’s operations should be extended globally to make the “enemy” insecure to a larger extent. Indeed, the Supreme Leader has asked military officials to provide plans for extending Tehran’s reach to wider geographical zones. The mission of the second phase emphasizes territorial integrity and asks for a broader regional and global role for the Islamic Republic. He has ordered Salami to provide complementary steps for the second phase of the Islamic Revolution. This means a shift from current second generation doctrine of “second strike” to the third generation doctrine of “massive retaliation”.Īgainst this backdrop, Ayatollah Khamenei has asked his newly-appointed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Hossein Salami, to redefine the IRGC’s principal strategies. In practical terms, Tehran’s military response will probably be in a form of doctrinal review to balance the increasing threats. in order to maintain effective deterrence. In other words, he believes that Iran needs to escalate the threat level against the U.S. Indeed, he has emphasized that Iran will respond to threats with more threats. attack or future conflict is by responding to U.S. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is convinced that the only solution to deter U.S. Despite huge social burdens, these developments are providing Iranian leaders with the backing needed to increase national resource mobilization for the military. pressure has enabled staunch supporters of the Islamic Republic to conflate their “defending the revolution” discourse with a “defending Iran” discourse that has a wider appeal among ordinary Iranians. People are feeling an existential threat to the concept of “Iran” itself and not just to the “revolutionary state”. Trump’s escalation is also shifting ordinary Iranians’ understanding of the threat. This is convincing Iranian leaders to adopt a new military doctrine. However, Tehran fears that any future military imbalance could ignite a Saudi- or Israeli-led war even if that is not Trump’s intent. Trump sees “maximum pressure” as a way to restrain Iran’s power projection capacity to that of a “ normal country“. It obscures Tehran’s military investments and increases the costs of implementing regional aspects of Iran’s deterrence capabilities. Tehran believes that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign could deepen the existing military expenditures disparity between Iran and its rivals and disrupt the regional military balance. that has grabbed so much media attention, Tehran is also considering longer-term military measures in response to U.S. Beyond the current escalating tension between Iran and the U.S. Additionally, the growing military threat against Iran is strengthening the military aspect of the Iranian government’s response. On May 15, Iran announced that it would stop implementing some of its obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) as a first response against U.S.
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